The Zorganian Republic has some very strange customs. Couples only wish to have female children as only females can inherit the family's wealth, so if they have a male child they keep having more children until they have a girl. If they have a girl, they stop having children. What is the ratio of girls to boys in Zorgania?
The ratio of girls to boys in Zorgania is 1:1. This might be a little counter-intuitive at first. Here are some ways of tackling this problem. 1. Monte Carlo Simulation:
Although, Monte Carlo simulation does not necessarily show why the result is 1:1, it is appropriate because of the very counter-intuitive nature of the problem. At the very least, it helps us see that the result is indeed 1:1. Therefore, this is a good start.
The following R code estimates the probability of a child being a boy in Zorgania.
couples <-100000
boycount <-0for (i in1:couples){
# 0: boywhile (sample(c(0,1),1) ==0) {
boycount=boycount+1
}
}
probability <- boycount/(co…
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ReplyDeleteRobert